Ep 76 - China's economy is hurting, Beijing's answer is patience

About this episode

China's July Politburo meeting is always a big one, as the leadership takes stock of the economy and signals policy adjustments for the second half of the year. • In this year’s July meeting, officials clearly signaled that more fiscal support is on the way, but only in modest amounts. Note: This is our second short format episode – tighter, quick-turnaround reactions to the news as it breaks, alongside our regular weekly deep dives. • Let us know what you think about the new format! On this episode, Andrew Polk sits down with Dinny McMahon (Trivium’s Head of Markets Research) to unpack: • How this July Politburo readout offered surprisingly clear language that more fiscal support is coming, and in what form • What "fiscal-financial cooperation" means in practice, and why it's really code for interest rate subsidies • Why Beijing is likely to lean on accelerated special-purpose bond issuance – and a probable Q4 top-up, following last year's playbook – rather than broad interest rate cuts • Why none of this changes the underlying story: Beijing is deliberately riding out a long, painful real estate adjustment – and this is just a slight pick-me-up