Ep 82 - Another grim month for the Chinese economy

About this episode

China’s July macro data just landed, and the title of our monthly macro note says it all: “A Grim Picture.” • Consumption, investment, and property all deteriorated further last month – and the two props that supported the economy in the first half of the year are now fading fast. On this episode, Trivium China podcast host Andrew Polk sits down with Joe Peissel (Lead Macro Analyst) to unpack: • How July’s slowdown was broad-based, across nearly every metric that matters – and why growth looks even worse than the headlines suggest • How the K-shaped economy has spread from output into investment flows, entrenching the divide between booming and struggling sectors • Why deflation, not inflation, remains the real danger for a heavily indebted economy like China’s – as officials are having to quietly pick their poison • Why even China’s 24% y/y export growth print obscures a much less impressive reality, once you separate price from volume