Odds Ratios: Do most people get them wrong?

About this episode

Odds ratios show up everywhere in medical research—but do readers, journalists, and even researchers always know what they mean? In this episode, we tackle one of the most common statistical misunderstandings in science: treating odds ratios like risk ratios. Along the way, we explore puppy photos, fish photos, first-date hookups, sugary drinks, cardiac care, and a listener challenge that started with an informal study of five medical residents and a box of chocolate truffles. We explain why logistic regression produces odds ratios, when odds ratios can wildly exaggerate effects, and why some famous headlines turned out to be much less dramatic than they sounded. Statistical topics • binary outcomes • case-control studies • logistic regression • odds ratios • risk ratios • odds vs risk  Methodological morals • “Just because logistic regression gives you an odds ratio does not mean you have to report it.” • “A lot of bad science communication starts long before the journalist even enters the story.” References • Bleich SN, Herring BJ, Flagg DD, et al. Reduction in purchases of sugar-sweetened beverages among low-income Black adolescents after exposure to caloric information