688. When Is a Bet Not a Bet?

About this episode

That’s the question at the heart of a battle between Kalshi and state gambling regulators. As prediction markets boom, there are other questions, too — about insider trading, market manipulation, and whether the public has turned against them. (Part two of a two-part series.) • SOURCES:• Gary Gensler, former chair of the S.E.C. and the C.F.T.C. • Robin Hanson, professor of economics at George Mason University. • Nicole Kagan, head of research at Kalshi. • Tarek Mansour, co-founder and C.E.O. of Kalshi. • RESOURCES:• "Shall We Vote on Values, But Bet on Beliefs?" by Robin Hanson (Journal of Political Philosophy, 2013). • EXTRAS:• "Are Prediction Markets the Best Forecasting Tool Ever — or Just Another Casino?" by Freakonomics Radio (2026). • "He Helped Clean Up the Last Crash. Does He See Another One Coming?" by Freakonomics Radio (2026). • "The Economics of Sports Gambling," by Freakonomics Radio (2019). Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.