Ep. 2002: The Buggy Whip Theory

About this episode

The “Buggy Whip Theory” is a reminder that even when investors correctly see the future coming, they rarely know which company—or which part of a new industry—will actually win. Don and Tom trace the lesson from ice delivery and buggy whips to streaming, airlines, and artificial intelligence. They also explain why rebalancing is portfolio maintenance rather than market timing, what falling municipal-bond prices really mean, and how to calculate international exposure as a percentage of the stock portion of a portfolio. 00:58 The Monday financial-physics edition 02:28 The Buggy Whip Theory 06:22 Ice companies, refrigerators, and 7-Eleven 07:21 Seeing the future still doesn’t identify the winner 09:42 Artificial intelligence and the Nvidia surprise 11:11 Diversification beats prediction and FOMO 14:34 Rebalancing versus market timing 16:26 Evaluating Vanguard’s municipal-bond ETF 21:24 How much international stock exposure? 23:36 Podcast diversification and the follow button 27:57 Disclosures Questions? Comments? Click!