Ep 94 - China’s hollow growth

About this episode

China’s GDP growth rose to 4.5% y/y in Q3, after slipping to 4.3% in Q2. That puts it right at the bottom edge of Beijing’s 4.5–5% target range. On the surface, that looks like a real pickup. A closer look tells a less encouraging story. • Nearly all of the growth came from China’s record trade surplus, which rose almost 30% y/y. Consumption and investment added very little. • Joe Peissel calls it “hollow growth.” On this episode, Dinny McMahon (Trivium’s Head of Markets Research) fills in for regular host Andrew Polk. He sits down with Joe (Trivium’s Lead Macroeconomist) to unpack: • Why nominal GDP grew 6%, its fastest pace since 2022, and why that comes from cost pressures caused by the Iran war rather than a healthier economy • The price-versus-volume story behind September’s export boom • Why September’s pickup in retail sales and services spending owes more to the iPhone 18 launch and an early Mid-Autumn holiday than to any real recovery in consumption • Why Beijing’s latest support package, including its new mortgage subsidy, will help China hit its growth target but won’t fix weak demand • And why Beijing’s bet that tech-led growth will eventually lift household spending