Hypernormal Investing: Growing Capital & Protecting Wealth Amid Radical Uncertainty
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Subscribe here on Substack. US 10-year Treasury yields are at around 5%, 30-year gilts have been heading towards 6%, and bond markets are repricing across the world. What should investors make of it? I am joined by Marcus Ashworth, financial commentator, former Bloomberg Opinion writer and fixed income specialist, who argues that the sell-off is logical, not frightening, and that bonds may be the most oversold they have ever been. Marcus explains how AI hyperscalers such as Microsoft, Meta and Alphabet have gone from under 1% to about 8% of the credit market in two years, and why their borrowing is pushing up costs for other companies and the US Treasury. He also sets out why he doesn't buy the debasement trade, what Scott Bessent and Kevin Warsh are learning from the markets, and why refining capacity matters more than the crude oil price. On the UK, Marcus describes how the Bank of England's quantitative tightening made gilts the easiest bond market in the world to short, and why its new arrangement with the Debt Management Office is a major step forward. He looks ahead to the Budget on October 28th and explains why sterling is a "non-player character". Marcus Ashworth, bond