Hypernormal Investing: Growing Capital & Protecting Wealth Amid Radical Uncertainty
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Subscribe to Hypernormal Times on Substack David Dredge, CIO of Convex Strategies, returns sixteen months after his first appearance to grade the hopes he once had for Scott Bessent as the "adult in the room" at Treasury. This episode covers Bessent's yen intervention and Treasury bond buybacks, Kevin Warsh's rocky first months as Fed Chair, an eerie echo of 1990s Japan, the reawakened gold-and-Bitcoin debasement trade, the real purpose of stablecoins, and the spectacular blowup of a 24-year-old trader who turned $200 million into $45 billion — and back again. Dredge closes with where he thinks the market is currently mispricing risk, and why his answer to uncertainty is always better brakes, not less speed. In this episode: • Grading Scott Bessent's "3-3-3" plan and the failure of DOGE • The "Hunger Games of debt issuance" — who's left to buy government bonds • What Bessent's yen intervention and bond buybacks are really signaling to "Rational Accounting Man" • Kevin Warsh's Fed: forward guidance is dead, but has "talk tough, do nothing" replaced it • The Fed's new task forces — Bill White on inflation targeting, Mervyn King on communications • Japan's subsidised inflation numb