Hypernormal Investing: Growing Capital & Protecting Wealth Amid Radical Uncertainty
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Subscribe to Hypernormal Times on Substack. Anthropic files for what could be the largest IPO in history. Meta launches its biggest-ever equity raise. And then the earnings land: Alphabet has its worst day ever, Amazon’s record AWS growth is swallowed by $77bn of quarterly CapEx, and Intel drops 23%. Meanwhile the Fed holds rates six days before an election and tells us politics played no part, the US tells its Gulf allies to prepare for a short, intense campaign against Iran after the midterms, and Binance suspends withdrawals after the largest bank heist in history. This week on Hypernormal Investing: why free cash flow, not revenue growth, is now the scoreboard for the AI trade, and why next Tuesday’s election has become the hinge for a war, the Fed’s December decision and the global bond market. In this episode: • The AI capital crunch – Anthropic’s $100bn Nasdaq listing at a $1.5–2tn valuation (first-half revenue of $16.3bn, up from $1.2bn, and $475bn of compute commitments), Meta’s $95bn raise after its first negative free cash flow since 2012, Broadcom’s $63bn chip financing, and Elon Musk on debt markets closing to anyone without revenue outside AI data centres. Ed Yard